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The accuracy of ex-ante cost-benefit analysis - Evidence from the norwegian road sector - Road Design and Road Construction Prize
Anne Kjerkreit Senior Adviser at the Norwegian Public Roads Administration, Norway and member of the World Road Association Technical Committee 1.4 on Road Transport System Economics and Social Development
James Odeck Senior Research Economist, Norway
Cost-benefit analyses (CBA) are conducted in the road sectors to provide decision-makers with information regarding the economic viability of projects. CBAs are often performed ex-ante, before the decision to build. They are a prediction of what will occur if projects are implemented. A question readily asked is: do such analyses meet real outturns? The transportation literature has not addressed this question extensively. Addressing it would reveal the extent to which decision-makers' objectives are being met and give input that can improve CBA as a proper decision-making tool.